Politics · 1 August 2026
Why does Curtice call Labour's poll bounce unremarkable?
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Typical for a new PM, says pollster Curtice, whose analysis shows Labour's four to five point lead over Reform matches every mid-term prime ministerial change, not an outlier. Labour's Bev Craig won the Greater Manchester mayoral race with 309,525 votes to Reform's 157,178, extending Reform's losing run to six straight by-elections. Professor Tim Bale says Labour needs more than 'vibes' to keep growing.
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